Book Project

Catch Up and Surpass: Technology Transfer and the Rise of China

My book project examines China’s quest to harness inflows of foreign capital and technology to promote what Chinese leaders call “indigenous innovation” after the Cold War. It argues that national power and regime legitimacy concerns led China to pursue technology transfers in strategic industries during this period, but that China’s ability to do so was constrained by its bargaining power over the foreign multinational enterprises who invested there. China’s bargaining position has been strongest when the central state is relatively unified and mobilized around technological upgrading, in sectors in which China sits downstream of global production processes as a final market, and when inter-firm competition between foreign enterprises enables it to “divide and conquer’’ prospective investors. By contrast, China’s leverage has been weaker when its central economic bureaucracy is fragmented, in sectors in which China relies on foreign-controlled global value chains (GVCs) to drive export growth and employment, and when one or two foreign incumbents dominate the market globally. The book also traces how China’s broader geopolitical environment, and in particular its relationship with the United States, has facilitated its foreign technology acquisition efforts — but also how those same efforts helped precipitate ongoing U.S.-China trade and technology conflicts.

To assess the argument, the book combines statistical analysis of an original industry-level dataset on technology transfer policies in China from 1995-2020 with detailed qualitative case studies of China’s technology acquisition efforts in semiconductor design and fabrication, commercial aircraft manufacturing, and wind turbine technology. The dataset, based on analysis of hundreds of Chinese-language laws and regulations, reveals that centralizing reforms facilitated a pronounced increase in China’s use of technology transfer policies in strategic industries starting in the mid-2000s, but that China was much less likely to issue these measures in sectors in which it occupied an intermediate position in global production networks. In-depth case studies drawing on Chinese-language original sources and more than thirty interviews with policymakers, industry experts, and executives directly involved in relevant negotiations provide compelling evidence that China’s reliance on foreign firms constrains its use of technology transfer policies when China is embedded in GVCs as an intermediate export-processing hub. The case studies further show how China has leveraged inter-firm competitive dynamics to divide and conquer investors, but also how increased U.S. government pressure after 2014 led China to substitute away from formal technology transfer-related policies in favor of less easily policed practices thereafter.

Peer-Reviewed Publications

“Preventive Limited Economic War: Explaining the U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls on China,” Forthcoming, International Security, with M. Taylor Fravel

“Re-Innovation Nation: The Political Economy of Technology Transfer Policy in Post-WTO China,” Forthcoming, Journal of Politics

“Divide and Conquer: Market Structure, Inter-firm Competition, and Bargaining over Technology,” 2026. International Studies Quarterly

“Trump, U.S.-China Competition, and the Future of Technology Transfer,” 2025. Global Public Policy and Governance

Editor-Reviewed Book Chapters

“Technology Transfer in China: Motives, Policy Tools, Implications,” Forthcoming, Handbook on the International Political Economy of China

Selected Working Papers

“The Weaponizer’s Dilemma and the Durability of Coercive Economic Statecraft,” with Austin M. Carson

“The Economic Effects of Joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Implications for Assessing Chinese Influence,” with M. Taylor Fravel and Raymond Wang

“Managing the Shock: Subnational Policy Responses to Technological Change in China,” with Li Junda and Zhu Ruoyan

Selected Works in Progress

“Turning Point: Sectoral Lobbying and U.S. Support for Engagement with China, 1992-2001”

“Assessing the Prospects for Chinese Outbound Technology Transfers to the Global South”

“Coercion, Persuasion, and Ally Compliance with U.S. Technology Export Controls”